Home > Fande = Fact & Evidence, The Economy > Bravo, Peter Gorenstein! Thanks for the Fande. : )

Bravo, Peter Gorenstein! Thanks for the Fande. : )

Fande = Fact & Evidence; Cande = Conjecture & Exaggeration


Dow 10,000: The More Things Change, The More

They Stay the Same

Posted Oct 15, 2009 12:30pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein

Wall Street’s partying like it’s 1999.  Literally.  More than 10 years after first eclipsing 10,000 and more than a year since it was last above the mark, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,015 on Wednesday.

For the bulls, it’s a sign the U.S. is well on its way to recovery.

Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, points out a lot has changed since the Dow first broke the magical 10,000 barrier in March of 1999.  While most other assets have gained value, the Dow is stuck in the mud.  Worse yet, we’re not even close to break even if you factor in the fact the dollar has lost 25% of its value in the last 10 years, based on the Dollar Index.

Here’s some of Boockvar’s other sobering stats comparing today vs. the first time the Dow cracked 10,000:

  • Total US debt was $24.6T vs $50.8T today.
  • The CRB commodity index was at 192.40. Today, it stands at 269
  • Gold was at $280. Now, it’s hitting all-time highs above $1,060 per ounce.
  • A barrel of crude oil was $16.44, today it cracked $75.

You get the point.

Aaron and Henry point out in the clip, there’s a huge disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. While traders are making money, the unemployment rate is 9.8% – the highest since Reagan’s first term. And the housing market is still in major trouble. RealtyTrac, reports nearly 1 million foreclosure filings in the third quarter, a 5% increase from the previous quarter and an increase of nearly 23% from the same time last year.

Yes, Dow 10,000 is a positive sign but 1999 it is not.

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